Analisis Dekomposisi Deret Waktu Untuk Estimasi Kelahiran  Dan Kematian Di Kota Medan Tahun 2014–2024

Syafiruddin; Fadia Nabilah Ningrum

doi:10.64168/jag.v2i1.1623

Syafiruddin Universitas Graha Nusantara
Fadia Nabilah Ningrum Universitas Graha Nusantara

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64168/jag.v2i1.1623

Keywords: Time Series Decomposition, Birth, Death, SPSS, Medan City

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the birth and death patterns in Medan City during the period 2014–2024 using the time series decomposition method. This method separates data into three main components, namely long-term trends, seasonality, and random components. Data processing was carried out using IBM SPSS Statistics software using additive and multiplicative models. The results of the analysis show that the number of births experienced a sharp downward trend during 2015–2021 and a slight increase after the pandemic. The death rate was relatively stable but increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. The decomposition method has proven effective in understanding data structures and supporting the formulation of evidence-based population policies.