ANALISIS TREND PRODUKSI KOPI DAN KAKAO BERDASARKAN LUAS LAHAN DAN HARGA DI KABUPATEN TAPANULI SELATAN

Abstract

Coffee and cocoa are major plantation commodities in South Tapanuli Regency, playing a vital role in the regional economy. The production trends of both commodities are strongly influenced by key factors such as land area (as production capital) and selling price (as economic incentive). This study aims to analyze the production trends of coffee and cocoa and test the influence of land area and price on the production volume of each commodity. The data used are time series secondary data from 2015 to 2024 [Assumed research year from the thesis] in South Tapanuli Regency. The analysis method employed is Multiple Linear Regression. The regression results indicate that the selling price significantly and positively affects coffee production, while the land area is not significant. For the cocoa commodity, land area has a positive and significant influence on production, while the selling price is not significant. The study concludes that the driving factor for coffee production is more market incentive-based, while cocoa production is driven more by the availability of production factors.