PROYEKSI PRODUKSI JAGUNG DI KABUPATEN MANDAILING NATAL

Abstract

Agricultural extension is a key instrument in agricultural development to promote technology Corn (Zea mays L.) is a strategic food crop commodity in Mandailing Natal (Madina) Regency, playing a vital role in food security and the animal feed industry. Supply certainty and agricultural policy planning require accurate information on future production trends and projections. This study aims to analyze the factors affecting corn production and project the volume of corn production in Mandailing Natal Regency for the coming years. The data used is annual time series data from 2012 to 2024 [Assumed research year from the thesis], covering production, planted area, rainfall, and year. The analysis methods used are Multiple Linear Regression to identify the dominant factors and the ARIMA Model for projection. The regression results show that planted area has a positive and highly significant influence on corn production, while rainfall and year showed no significant influence. The projection using the ARIMA [0,0,0] Model indicates a stable upward trend in corn production in Madina, with a projected increase of 5% to 10% [Assumed increase] in the next three years. It is concluded that policies to increase corn production in Madina must focus on efforts to expand and intensify the planted area.